Land in Central America will become less suitable for coffee cultivation under climate change

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Coffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude continuity of these benefits by reducing land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify impacts climate on suitability, we use Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) estimate production 2000, 2050, 2080 under three scenarios based relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 8.5. Results indicate that even less severe scenarios, over half current area will experience a decline its production, from excellent or good moderate marginal, not happen more distant future 2080, but 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most areas become marginal suitability. The findings show large portion threat farmers policy-makers should develop adaptation portfolios their farms regions timely manner.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Regional Environmental Change

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1436-378X', '1436-3798']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01803-0